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NEW YORK (TheStreet) — Ford’s(F) proceeds report suggested that at least one American carmaker’s going to make gain during the coming years.

Considering where Ford was barely five years ~ne (as Jim Cramer noted), that’s no small accomplishment. But where should investors go from here? That all depends on which endeavors scenario you think will unfold. There are a few different ones.

Scenario 1 (rank quo): Let’s assume nothing much changes for the industry in the next few years. In that case, Ford seems a pretty good wager. At least based on the U.S. market.

But the big enchilada is fast-growing China, and the 8,000-pound gorilla in that place is General Motors. With a growing middle class and the inevitability of China allowing domestic consumption to expand, China is hard not to think about. There are moreover Korean auto companies Kia and Hyundai. It’s hard not to remarks their increasing presence on America’s highways. So pick which emporium you want to invest in. (There’s also the integrated oil companies and refiners to cleanse from.)

Scenario 2 (disruptive electricity). No, I’m not thinking of Tesla(TSLA). Tesla’s the common electric-car company.

For the disruptive scenario, you should look at Start-Up Nation: The Story of Israel’s Economic Miracle through Dan Senor and Saul Singer. Among the first persons discussed in this suddenly (under 200 well-written pages) book is a young Israeli entrepreneur, Shai Agassi, whose body, Better Place, seeks to disrupt the electric-car marketplace with a make different in paradigm.

Agassi astutely recognized the challenges in having a quid-in electric car — the time needed to recharge a battery. His other: At a service station, just change the decharged battery with person fully charged. If it takes less time than it does to stretch up a gas tank, consumers would go for it. Is it economically practicable?

Pilot studies in Israel, Denmark and Hawaii (finished by the close of the year) will determine if it may be. If they’re felicitous, roll-out starts in 2012. Who wins then? Anyone involved in electricity progeny and transportation. Think USEC(USU), Quanta Power Services(PWR), Comverge(COMV), EnerNOC(ENOC), Fluor(FLR), Jacobs Engineering(JEC), Mitsubishi, United Technologies(UTX), Shaw Group(SHAW), Areva, Siemens(SI), Pike Electric(PIKE), General Electric(GE), ABB(ABB) and Powell Industries(POWL). There are lots of choices to ~ out from.

 

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