BREAKINGVIEWS-The UK should not waste it…
By Hugo Dixon
LONDON, April 6 (Reuters Breakingviews) – The UK should not
waste its fiscal crisis. As Britain embarks on its election
campaign, this is a perfect opportunity to engage in radical tax
and spending reforms designed not just to restore the country’s
fiscal balance but to boost its long-term productivity and
competitiveness.
It is, of course, necessary to cut the deficit, which is
currently running at an unsustainable 12 percent of GDP. It is
also important that spending cuts rather than tax rises bear the
brunt of the belt-tightening. Otherwise, the UK will find that
companies and rich people are increasingly driven off-shore.
The two main political parties — the Labour government and
the opposition Conservatives — broadly buy into this. However,
neither party has spelt out what spending it would cut and where
it would raise taxes. Nor have they given any inkling of seeking
to take advantage of the crisis to push through deep-seated
reforms. They are unlikely to do so during the coming campaign,
fearing that too much detail will scare the voters.
GUIDING PRINCIPLES
Nevertheless, the next government, faced with the immensity
of its fiscal challenge, will be forced to slaughter at least
some sacred cows. What then are the principles that should guide
it?
First, simplicity. The current tax system is a patchwork
quilt of loopholes, allowances and special arrangements. This is
an incentive to engage in elaborate contortions to avoid tax.
While perfectly legal, such activity is socially wasteful. Tax
lawyers and accountants benefit — as do the rich who are the
only people who can afford their expensive advice. Everybody
else loses out.
A second principle should be low headline tax rates. The
highest earners have just started paying 50 percent tax on
income above 150,000 pounds. This is a bad advert for the UK. Of
course, there are lots of ways for high-earners to cut their
effective tax rate. But it would be far better to close the
loopholes and limit the allowances — and compensate taxpayers
with lower tax rates.
Yet another principle should be that the government should
have no business subsidising the lifestyles of the middle class,
let alone those of the rich. Sure, there is a vital role in
helping out the poorest members of society. But many benefits
and tax breaks also help those in the middle and at the top of
the economic tree. Cut these, and tax rates can drop
substantially.
Finally, government needs to think long-term. Some action
does need to be taken to rein in the deficit in the short run.
But not all the belt-tightening has to come through in the next
parliament, which could last up to five years. Slow-burn reforms
that cut spending or bring in money over a horizon of 5 to 10
years — or even longer — are extremely valuable.
What would applying these principles mean in practice?
DON’T BE RETIRING
The current matrix of pensions policies have crimped the
UK’s productivity, created a government liability that is
unsustainable, and don’t even provide a good pension for the
people at the bottom of society.
There are three main culprits. First, the official
retirement age is too low. Men can collect their state pension
at 65, while women can still do so when they turn 60. This is
despite the fact that life expectancy keeps rising and many
people are living well into their 80s and beyond.
Second, the state gives generous pensions for public-sector
employees. The net present value of this liability is now 65
percent of UK GDP, according to actuaries Towers Watson — and
it’s not even included in the official debt figures.
Third, tax perks for pension saving benefit the fairly well
off who don’t really need an incentive to save for their old
age.
There are three solutions:
* The official retirement age should be raised to 70 for
both sexes over the next 20-30 years. Thereafter, it should be
further increased automatically as life expectancy improves.
This wouldn’t just save the state money; it would encourage
people to work for longer, so increasing the economy’s
productive capacity. Both the Conservatives and, to a lesser
extent, Labour are planning to increase the pension age. But
neither is nearly as radical as this.
* The government should close final-salary pension schemes
for both current and new public sector employees. That way, its
liability will at least stop rising.
* The raft of costly tax incentives for private-sector
pensions should be swept away. Instead, there should be a simple
incentive focussed more on those at the middle and bottom of
society. My colleague, Neil Collins, has proposed an excellent
plan for achieving this: the buy one get one free pension. Under
‘Bogof’, any money put into a pension scheme (up to an annual
limit that is meaningful for the poor but peanuts for the rich)
would be matched pound for pound by the state.
CAPITAL IDEA
The capital gains tax (CGT) regime is another perk for the
wealthy. The rate is now only 18 percent, way below the new top
rate of income tax of 50 percent. Not surprisingly, high-earners
are using their ingenuity to turn income into capital gains
wherever possible.
This distortion in the tax system is unsustainable. The best
solution would be for people to pay the same CGT rate as their
income tax rate. To make this palatable, though, the top rates
of income tax should simultaneously be cut.
Another useful reform to CGT could be to modify the annual
tax-free allowance, currently 10,100 pounds. Oddly enough, this
is higher than the 6,475 pounds tax-free allowance under income
tax, which matters more to ordinary people. It wouldn’t be fair
to abolish the CGT tax allowance completely, as some people live
largely off capital gains. But one option would be to have a
single allowance of, say, 8,000 pounds, covering both income and
capital gains. Combine this with the equalisation of income and
capital gains taxes and the two taxes would essentially be
unified. Over time, it would also raise a significant sum of
money.
AN ENGLISHMAN’S HOME
The biggest middle-class perk of all is the generous fiscal
treatment of housing. The best element of this is that people do
not have to pay tax on the capital gains they make on their
homes. They are also no longer taxed on the imputed income they
receive from living in their homes. And there isn’t much of a
local property tax either. Local government rates used to be
roughly proportionate to the value of homes. But Margaret
Thatcher abolished those and replaced them with the poll tax.
Although that was ultimately killed off, the current council tax
is only loosely linked to property values.
The result of all this is the British love affair with
houses. Unfortunately, the infatuation is unhealthy. Young
people leverage themselves up to get on the housing ladder,
fearing that, if they don’t, they’ll find themselves priced out
of the property market. Not surprisingly, housing booms and
busts have featured prominently in each of the last two
recessions, with a knock-on effect on banks, which sometimes
have to be bailed out.
But the damage doesn’t stop at macro-economic instability.
The tax advantages of housing have distorted people’s savings
decisions. The bulk of the British people’s savings goes into
their homes. Not much is left over to recycle to investment in
industry.
What’s more, the whole system gives people a very odd idea
about the work ethic. During the last upswing, some homeowners
were regularly making more money from the annual capital gains
in their homes (which are untaxed) than from what they made at
work (which is taxed). This is unfair on those who either can’t
get onto the property ladder or don’t want to run up excessive
debts.
There are various ways in which housing’s fiscal
featherbedding could be mitigated. The government has just made
a modest move by raising stamp duty on properties worth 1
million pounds or more from 4 percent to 5 percent. The Liberal
Democrats, the UK’s third largest party, have proposed an annual
mansion tax of 1 percent on properties worth more than 2 million
pounds. The best way of dealing with housing’s peculiar fiscal
advantage, however, would be to charge people CGT on future
gains made from property sales. This wouldn’t just remove a
major economic distortion; over time it would also generate
significant revenue.
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